Washington State, USA

This is part of the Regional Summary series at www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming

[last update: 2009/02/13]

This document provides a regional study of Washington State, USA. Only temperature and precipitation stations that have data from prior to 1930 and after 1995 are included in this study, since climate studies are only valid by including long-term data (the IPCC includes stations that have data from 1961 to 1990, since their intent is not long-term climate study, but only to show recent warming).

Keep in mind when viewing climate data that according to the IPCC, the computer models only need CO2 after 1970 – any warming prior to that is officially due to natural causes (see: www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_Nutshell.htm)

The following figure shows the annual average temperature for Washington State since 1895 according to the NCDC [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/wa.html]

The following figure shows the annual average temperature anomalies for the two 5x5 degree grids covering Washington State since 1880 from the Hadley Climatic Research Unit (HadCRU – CRUTEM3 plotted at http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climate.aspx) The HadCRU data is used by the IPCC.

In February 2009 the alarmist Seattle Times reported in “Report: Climate Change to Wallop State” that Washington “is in for a double whammy from global warming” based on a report from the state climatologist [http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008731012_climate11m.html] The report cites all the standard alarmist scenarios of things that “could” happen in the future. The problem is that “the analysis was based primarily on computer models” -- while the actual historical data does not support these alarmist scenarios as documented below.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The temperature in the Pacific Northwest is governed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) – a natural cycle. The following figure shows the annual mean temperature anomalies for the two 5x5 degree grids covering the Pacific Northwest coast of the U.S. -- western Oregon and Washington from 1900 to 2007. This data is from the Hadley Climatic Research Unit (HadCRU) as used by the IPCC.

The following figure shows the average of the two grids shown above. The graph was made from   [http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=HCRUG100AJanDecA190020080900210AR40-45N:120-125Wx45-50N:120-125Wx]. Temperatures have been declining since 1992. The next figure superimposes the two-grid average annual temperature anomaly (changed to green) on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO figure is from http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/. A strong correlation exists between the PNW coastal temperatures and the PDO. CO2 does not affect the climate in Washington.

See http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm for more information on the PDO.

Puget Sound Area

The following figure shows most of the available long-term stations in the Puget Sound area (mean annual temperature from the NOAA database). Most stations show no long-term warming trend.

A closer look at the few stations that actually show some recent warming trend follows below.

Seattle: The following two graphs show annual average maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperature. The maximum shows no unprecedented warming, while the minimum shows a continuous warming trend. The maximum temperature occurs during the day (typically in the afternoon), while the minimum temperature occurs during the night. The fact that nighttime minimum temperatures are warming, while daytime maximum temperatures are not is symptomatic of the urban heat effect – i.e. not climatic warming, but heat retention due to increasing amounts of concrete and paved areas.

Bellingham: The following two graphs show annual average maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperature. This exhibits the same urban warming effects as described above for Seattle.

Sedro Woollley: The following two graphs show annual average maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperature. The maximum is not increasing whereas the minimum is. Although Sedro Woolley is listed as a rural station, it also exhibits nighttime warming. This may be due to improper site characteristics as shown in the following photo (too close to buildings, parking lots, etc.) – [photo from surfacestations.org].

Coastal Washington

The following figure shows the available long-term stations in the Coastal Washington area (mean annual temperature from the NOAA database). Most stations show no unprecedented long-term warming trend.

Central Washington

The following figure shows most of the available long-term stations in the Central Washington area (mean annual temperature from the NOAA database). Most stations show no long-term warming trend.

A closer look at the few stations that actually show some recent warming trend shows the familiar urban warming effects.

Wenatchee: The following two graphs show annual average maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperature. The maximum shows no unprecedented warming, while the minimum shows a continuous warming trend. This is the urban warming effect. The photos below show the Wenatchee site too close to a parking lot.

Sunnyside: The following two graphs show annual average maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperature. The maximum shows no unprecedented warming, while the minimum shows a continuous warming trend. This is the urban warming effect. The photos below show the Sunnyside site too close to a parking lot.

Eastern Washington

The following figure shows most of the available long-term stations in the Eastern Washington area (mean annual temperature from the NOAA database). Most stations show no long-term warming trend.

Precipitation

The following figure shows the annual total precipitation for Washington State since 1895 according to the NCDC [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/wa.html] According to the state climatalarmist cited in the Seattle Times at the start of this document, there will be increasing droughts and less water available for hydroelectricity.

The following graphs show the historical annual total precipitation for various locations in Washington State. Historical variations greatly exceed any recent trends.

Mountain Snowpack

An important climatic feature for Washington State is the mountain snowpack, since this provides much of the water source for the western populated area of the state. The USDA provides mountain snowpack maps for each “snow month” of the year (Jan – May) from 1980 to the present [http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl]. While the Washington State mountain snowpack has recently been generally larger than normal, there is significant variation from year to year. Many recent years have had below normal snowpack in April and May. Unfortunately the historical snowpack data is not as comprehensive as temperature data.

The following figures show the annual April temperatures for Longmire in Mt. Rainier National Park (mean temperature in the left figure and minimum temperature in the right). Most snowpack studies base trends on the April snowpack. If reliable snowpack data were available for the 1930’s, recent April / May trends would not seem unprecedented.

Longmire – Mt.Rainier NP Annual April Temperature: Mean (left) and Minimum (right)

Sea Level Rise

The UK-based Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) maintains a database of sea level measurements around the world. The following figure shows the available historical sea level data for the Pacific Ocean adjacent to the Washington State region.

Solar Influence

One thing that is noticeable in the Washington climate data is: no unprecedented warming at rural stations, nighttime warming at urban stations. This indicates urban warming, but does not support the CO2 theory. So what might influence the climate?

The following figure shows the solar irradiance from 1500 to 2006 (from UN Food and Agriculture Organization [ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/006/y5028e/y5028e01.pdf]).

The following figure shows the annual mean temperature from Longmire, Mt Rainier National Park, as well as a chart combining the solar irradiance (from the above figure) with Longmire temperature.

The following figures show the gridded (5x5 degree average) for the 5x5 grid including western Washington [left] (the adjacent 5x5 degree grid including eastern Washington is almost identical) and combined with the solar irradiance data [right]. While the atmospheric CO2 has been increasing continuously throughout this period, this level of coincidence between solar and temperature is no accident.

Mountain Glaciers

Mount Rainier

According to a report by Stephen Porter (“Recent glacier and climate variations in the Pacific Northwest” - Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington [http://faculty.washington.edu/scporter/Rainierglaciers.html])

the retreat of glaciers on Mount Rainier has been observed since the 1800’s when observations were first recorded.  The following figures are from that report. The left figure shows the extent of the Nisqually Glacier as recorded in various years showing the glacier retreat since 1825. The right figure shows the Nisqually Glacier mass balance trend since 1850. This trend is similar to most receding glaciers in the world – it cannot be blamed on anthropogenic CO2.

Mount St Helens

According to a recent article [www.katu.com/news/outdoors/18948279.html], the glacier in the Mt St Helens crater has been increasing in size in recent years: “The eruption 28 years ago hollowed out the center of the mountain and thrust it almost directly north, leaving a towering crater wall to shield the crater's interior from the melting effects of the sun during most months of the year, especially the winter months. Researcher Joseph Walder with the U.S. Geological Survey says the shade from the crater wall is allowing the glacier to grow in height by about 15 feet per year.” So it appears that without direct sun, global warming has no effect in causing glacier melting.