Hawaii

This is part of the Regional Summary series at www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming

The following figure shows the annual mean temperature anomalies from the Hadley CRUTEM3 (HadCRU) database for the two 5x5 degree grids covering most of the islands in the State of Hawaii.

The IPCC shows in AR4 that warming prior to 1970 is explained by natural causes, while warming after that requires anthropogenic CO2 in the models.  The following figure shows the above two grids averaged together over the last 40 years. There has been no warming since 1968.

The following figure shows the annual mean temperature anomalies for all four of the long-term stations in the NOAA Global Historical Climate Network database. There was warming from the early 1900s to the 1970s and then the warming stopped.

The following figure (left) shows the mean annual temperature at Hilo, the station closest to the Mauna Loa observatory, where the longest record of CO2 measurements is from, starting in 1958 (right – from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html). The next figure combines these two. Although CO2 has continued to increase, the effects are no warming in Hawaii.

The following figure shows the sunspot cycle and annual number of solar magnetic storms (from http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/earthmag.html which states: “The annual number of magnetic storms is represented by each bar of the histogram. Superimposed is the smoothed sunspot number. The dashed lines indicate solar minima and the dotted lines indicate solar maxima. Note the correlation of magnetic activity with solar activity and the apparent increase in magnetic activity with time.”). 

The following figure superimposes the Hilo annual mean temperature anomalies shown previously (changed to green) on the magnetic storm histogram. There is a strong correspondence, although other factors are clearly involved. One of the major times of divergence between the two is 1967-1968. In fact the Hilo temperature plot shows this to be a time of sudden warming as well as the time of setting the high point of the recent plateau in temperatures.

What happened in 1967? The following figure shows the eruption of Halema`uma`u in the Kilauea caldera [http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/2007/293/site/night-halemaumau.html]. “Since the 1924 explosive eruption, Halema`uma`u has been gradually filling with lava from numerous short-lived eruptions. The longest of these eruptions lasted about eight months from 1967-1968. It was the longest-lived lava lake at Halema`uma`u since 1919. It is also the most recent year that a long-lived lava lake has occupied Halema`uma`u.” [http://www.fireworkstudios.com/erupt.html].

Did the formation and then sudden release of this lava lake cause the 1967-68 warming?

The following figure shows the monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) for the 2x2 degree grid shown below from the NOAA SST database [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Timeseries/timeseries1.pl]. The 1967-68 warm anomaly is noticeable.

The following figures show the annual mean January SST (left) and annual mean January temperature at Hilo (right). The next figure below compares these two. This shows a very strong correlation between SST and Hilo air temperatures for January. The 1967-68 anomaly is not as distinct.

The following figures show the annual mean July SST (left) and annual mean July temperature at Hilo (right). The next figure below compares these two. This shows a very strong correlation between SST and Hilo air temperatures for July, with a slight divergence after 1997. The 1967-68 anomaly is very distinct.

NOAA tracks the history of stations in the GHCN database. According to the station history for Hilo (which is located at the airport) the station was moved slightly in 1949, 1954 and 1998, as shown in the following table (from http://mi3.ncdc.noaa.gov/mi3qry/locationGrid.cfm?fid=23749&stnId=23749&PleaseWait=OK). This may  

The following figures show sea level history from the Proudman Oceanic Laboratory PSMSL database [http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/] for Hilo (left) and Honolulu (right). The rate of sea level rise since the late 1970s has greatly reduced since the rate exhibited in the earlier 1900’s.

A 2005 study (Caccamise, D. J., II, M. A. Merrifield, M. Bevis, J. Foster, Y. L. Firing, M. S. Schenewerk, F. W. Taylor, and D. A. Thomas (2005), “Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion”, Geophysical Research Letters 32. [http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2004GL021380.shtml]) states: “In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.”

The following figure shows the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see www.appinsys.com/PDO_AMO.htm for more details on the PDO).

The following figure shows the annual mean temperature for Hilo (green) superimposed on the PDO. The temperature shows a remarkable correlation with the PDO for the last 60 years.

The following figure shows the annual sea level for Hilo (green) superimposed on the PDO. The sea level also shows a strong correlation with the PDO for the last 60 years.