Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming
Al Gore’s February “Un-Truths”
[last update: 2010/03/07]
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Al Gore reported on his blog [http://blog.algore.com/2010/02/repower_america_reports_the_fa.html]
Record snowstorms need two things: temperatures below freezing, and very high humidity. On a planet warmer by a few degrees on average, the Northeast US will still have plenty of days below freezing; the big difference will be warmer seas producing higher levels of moisture in the air — and therefore more severe cold-season storms."”
Gore makes many proclamations – data are to be ignored. But we’ll look at the data anyway.
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Very High Humidity… Therefore More Severe Snowstorms
The following figures show the specific humidity (i.e. the amount of water) in the atmosphere from the NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl] for the area of 35-45N x 70-80W (area indicated in the map). The plots are shown for the December – February time period for 4 atmospheric heights: 300mb, 400mb, 600mb, and 1000mb.
300mb (upper troposhpere - approx. 30,000 ft):
500mb (mid-troposphere - approx. 18,000 ft):
700mb (mid-troposphere - approx. 10,000 ft):
1000mb (approx. sea level):
It is clear from the above figures that winter moisture content in the atmosphere has not increased during the global warming era in the US eastern seaboard area.
The following figure shows the 700mb specific humidity for Dec – Feb for the expanded area of 25-50N x 60-80W, encompassing more ocean area for the formation of storms. No increase in moisture content (except in the 1998 El Nino year) and a definite declining trend over the last 60 years during the global warming era – the opposite of what Al Gore claims.
Al Gore blames the snowstorms on: “warmer seas producing higher levels of moisture in the air” and yet the December 2009 – February 2010 sea surface temperatures (SST) on the eastern US seaboard were mainly below average. The following figure shows the SST anomalies for the period from the NOAA ESRL web site. [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.seasonal.gif]
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World is Warming at Quickening Pace
Al Gore says: “The world is warming at a quickening pace”. But then there’s the actual data. The following shows the Hadley / Met Office / Climatic Research Unit global average temperature anomalies [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]. This is the data used by the IPCC. The last 5 decades are expanded at the right. In the last 50 years there have been 2 warming episodes: 1976-1980 and 1997-1998. During the last decade there has been no warming. Does no warming equate to a quickening pace?
Al Gore commits another alarmist ploy: implying that the global average applies everywhere. In fact, the trends have been different all over the globe (See: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_NotGlobal.htm)
The following figure shows the average annual temperature anomalies for the 4 5x5 degree grids in the northeast US seaboard area – same area as humidity data shown previously (Data from the HadCRU CRUTEM3 database plotted at http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climate.aspx). This is the area affected by recent major snowstorms that Al Gore blames on global warming.
The following figure shows the January – February average temperature anomalies. Winter temperatures have been declining since their peak in 1990 (which was lower than the 1930s peak and similar to the 1950s peak).
The following figure shows the July – August average temperature anomalies since 1950 for the 2 most populous grids above: the red line includes New York City and Boston, the blue line includes Washington DC and Philadelphia. Definitely not warming at a quickening pace.
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Al Gore is misleading the public with his lies. He blames the January 2010 weather on global warming, whereas it is a well known winter El Nino pattern – see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/ElNino2010.htm
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